Can Trent Frederic become the player the Edmonton Oilers thought they were acquiring? The answer is a cautious 'maybe'.
Trent Frederic was once an effective two-way winger with some offensive ability and a rugged edge for the Boston Bruins. However, in 75 regular-season games for the Edmonton Oilers, Frederic has been a shadow of his former self. Despite some signs of improvement late last season, the question remains: is he back? Will Oilers fans begin to see the real Frederic?
The numbers tell a story of a significant performance gap between Frederic's time with the Bruins and his time in Edmonton. While his time in Edmonton has been marked by a decline in key statistics, it's important to note that his long-term deal with a no-movement clause means he is likely to play every game.
One of the most concerning aspects is Frederic's expected goal share, which has dropped from 55% in Boston to 35% in Edmonton. This indicates a struggle to create and capitalize on scoring opportunities. His points per 60 in Edmonton would typically result in him being a healthy scratch, but his contract and role make it difficult to make changes.
The 2023-24 season saw Frederic post 2.11 points per 60 at five-on-five, but this number fell to 1.03 in Boston the following year and just over half a point per 60 with Edmonton one year ago. His goal share has also been on a downward trend, further highlighting his struggles.
In 2024-25, Frederic's offensive output was low from the start, and there are several factors to consider. Changes in linemates and a decline in foot speed appear to have played a significant role. His most common linemates in 2023-24, Charlie Coyle, James van Riemsdyk, and Morgan Geekie, contributed to his success, with a 73% goal share when playing together.
However, the 2024-25 season in Boston was a struggle. Frederic's shot remained in the 71st percentile, but his foot speed dropped below the NHL average. His offence suffered, and he was no longer playing with the top skill forwards in Boston. His goal share with Coyle dropped to 38%, and he was eventually moved off the line.
Despite these challenges, there is a glimmer of hope for Frederic in Edmonton. In the 2025-26 season, he took time to regain his foot speed and catch up to the play. By the end of the regular season, he was back to the 70th percentile in max speed, and his shot was hard enough to reach the 68th percentile. This late-season improvement, along with some impressive games playing with rookie Colton Dach, has given Oilers fans hope.
However, there are still mysteries surrounding Frederic's performance. The first mystery is what happened before the high-ankle sprain in Boston that contributed to his downswing in speed and effectiveness. There are no reports of any earlier injuries or issues that could have impacted his foot speed.
The second conundrum is whether Frederic has ever been suited to play against elite competition. Puck IQ data suggests that, with a few notable exceptions, he has not performed at a level that would suggest using him against the league's best would be productive. This means that time spent on the top two lines is unlikely to be successful.
In conclusion, while Frederic appears to be healthy and has shown signs of improvement in Edmonton, the question remains whether he can reach his former glory. Ideal deployment would come on a softer minutes line with a top-flight centre, and he may be more productive in a depth role in the bottom six. If he can play with the same abandon he displayed in Boston and with Dach late in the regular season, Oilers fans may finally see the real Trent Frederic.
